{"id":5201,"date":"2022-12-16T13:01:21","date_gmt":"2022-12-16T13:01:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/?p=5201"},"modified":"2026-04-09T09:42:19","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T09:42:19","slug":"how-is-it-when-the-world-is-in-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/financial-matters\/how-is-it-when-the-world-is-in-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"How is it when the world is in Recession?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">An economic growth surge is a usual expectation of the population residing in countries that are their own.\u00a0 When the systems are working as it is set and anticipated, every story seems to be a good one. Is there any bad reality or do we know about what\u2019s unseen? We hear a lot that a percentage of the population is below the poverty line and few other talks about people being unemployed, but what is contributing to that fact?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_79_2 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/financial-matters\/how-is-it-when-the-world-is-in-recession\/#What_is_a_recession\" >What is a recession?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/financial-matters\/how-is-it-when-the-world-is-in-recession\/#What_causes_recession\" >What causes recession?<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/financial-matters\/how-is-it-when-the-world-is-in-recession\/#How_does_inflation_affect_the_bond_price\" >How does inflation affect the bond price?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/financial-matters\/how-is-it-when-the-world-is-in-recession\/#Several_factors_add_to_the_overall_decline\" >Several factors add to the overall decline<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/financial-matters\/how-is-it-when-the-world-is-in-recession\/#1_The_rise_in_interest_rates\" >1. The rise in interest rates\u00a0<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/financial-matters\/how-is-it-when-the-world-is-in-recession\/#2_Crash_in_the_stock_market\" >2. Crash in the stock market\u00a0<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/financial-matters\/how-is-it-when-the-world-is-in-recession\/#3_Dip_in_manufacturing_orders\" >3. Dip in manufacturing orders<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/financial-matters\/how-is-it-when-the-world-is-in-recession\/#4_Control_of_wages\" >4. Control of wages\u00a0<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/financial-matters\/how-is-it-when-the-world-is-in-recession\/#5_Deflation\" >5. Deflation\u00a0<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/financial-matters\/how-is-it-when-the-world-is-in-recession\/#How_is_recession_actually_assessed\" >How is recession actually assessed?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-11\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/financial-matters\/how-is-it-when-the-world-is-in-recession\/#How_does_the_recession_affect_an_individual\" >How does the recession affect an individual?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-12\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/financial-matters\/how-is-it-when-the-world-is-in-recession\/#Is_the_recession_at_the_surge\" >Is the recession at the surge?<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-13\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/financial-matters\/how-is-it-when-the-world-is-in-recession\/#Business_outputs\" >Business outputs\u00a0<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-14\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/financial-matters\/how-is-it-when-the-world-is-in-recession\/#Spending_trend\" >Spending trend<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-15\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/financial-matters\/how-is-it-when-the-world-is-in-recession\/#Employment_drive\" >Employment drive<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-16\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/financial-matters\/how-is-it-when-the-world-is-in-recession\/#Yield_curve\" >Yield curve<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-17\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/financial-matters\/how-is-it-when-the-world-is-in-recession\/#Time_Value_of_the_Money_in_the_Present_and_Future\" >Time Value of the Money in the Present and Future\u00a0<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-18\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/financial-matters\/how-is-it-when-the-world-is-in-recession\/#At_a_glance\" >At a glance<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-19\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/financial-matters\/how-is-it-when-the-world-is-in-recession\/#Investment_Strategies_in_the_Bond_Market\" >Investment Strategies in the Bond Market\u00a0<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_is_a_recession\"><\/span><strong>What is a recession?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In a sensical way, \u201c<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Recession refers to the drop in economic activity of the country<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201d And it is recognized as one of the factors if the GDP growth is negative for two consecutive quarters.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The bang of the <a href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/market-view\/how-to-prepare-for-a-recession-in-india-and-what-to-do-when-one-hits\/\">recession<\/a> is on the GDP, retail sales, employment, income, and manufacturing. But it\u2019s been 10 years since the world went into an economic meltdown. Currently, the Russia &#8211; Ukraine war might seem like impacting the growth of the economy and that\u2019s the question hovering in all the curious minds. There surely is a dip anticipated as we can see it falling to 7.5% from 8.7% projected on January 2022 in India. The slowdown of the economy alone can\u2019t be the reason to conclude that it as a recession, there are various other things adding to it.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_causes_recession\"><\/span><strong>What causes recession?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Wondered what happened during the Covid catastrophe? Around 225 million people around the globe lost their jobs as a result of employers shutting their businesses down. That\u2019s because the catastrophe forced the situation to shut down processes and it led to the consequences of unemployment.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Only if the GDP falls down by 10% and more, the economy is said to be in a \u201cDepression\u201d. The cause of it can come from financial crises, natural disasters, raging pandemics, trade shocks, and bursts of the economic bubble.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One such example of recession is the \u201cGreat Recession\u201d due to the housing market crash in 2008 in America. It was led due to a man-made financial crisis which was a question on unethical rules of the corporate law who lend the mortgage loans such as investment banks, and mortgage investors and also adding to that the \u201cinsufficient regulation on the loans offered\u201d.\u00a0 When this event backfired, people began to default on payments.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What\u2019s into this story is that recession, regardless of how it arrives, isn\u2019t in anybody\u2019s hand to control but to be dealt with. Like stock markets rise and fall, even the economy is ought to recorrect over time after the dip though, it may last for months or years depending on the cause of it in the first place.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_does_inflation_affect_the_bond_price\"><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/essentials\/how-does-inflation-affect-bond-price\/?utm_source=blog&amp;utm_medium=blog&amp;utm_Recession\"><strong>How does inflation affect the bond price?<\/strong><\/a><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Several_factors_add_to_the_overall_decline\"><\/span><strong>Several factors add to the overall decline<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"1_The_rise_in_interest_rates\"><\/span><strong>1. The rise in interest rates\u00a0<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The rising <a href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/essentials\/how-does-inflation-affect-bond-price\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">inflation<\/a> demands that central banks, curb it by increasing interest rates. It has no option but to do it in order to control the situation of the increased Consumer Price Index. The central bank might also do that to preserve the currency value.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"2_Crash_in_the_stock_market\"><\/span><strong>2. Crash in the stock market\u00a0<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When investors lose confidence in investing, the <a href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/fixed-income\/corporate-bonds\/corporate-bonds-or-stocks-whats-better\/\">stock<\/a> market generally crashes and businesses fall into a shortage of money flow. Other financial crises or economic turmoil can pull down the stock value, hence the crash.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"3_Dip_in_manufacturing_orders\"><\/span><strong>3. Dip in manufacturing orders<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When the demand slows down, it is an indication of slow processing of the manufacturing as there are not many orders pouring into the system. The demand might have slowed down due to an increase in the prices of the products.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"4_Control_of_wages\"><\/span><strong>4. Control of wages\u00a0<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When the company wants to reduce the wage of an employee, it is impossible for them to implement it and that leads the company to get into laying off employees.\u00a0 This has been one of the reasons for recessions back in history.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"5_Deflation\"><\/span><strong>5. Deflation\u00a0<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The falling value of goods and services hits the economy through the psychology of the people. When the prices fall, consumers expect the price to fall more down before purchasing it next time. That indeed reduces the demand for the goods which in turn is a reason for recession. For your information deflation is worse than inflation for that matter.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_is_recession_actually_assessed\"><\/span><strong>How is recession actually assessed?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When the recession is underway actually? The sign of a dip in GDP is a signal that makes a way to it. The business cycle dating committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research measures recession on the aspect of \u201cDepth, Diffusion, and Duration\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But what does it mean?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Depth refers to \u201c<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The gravity of the severity in the downfall of the economic activities\u201d.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Diffusion refers to <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cHow the downfall has impacted the economy geologically and industry-wise. \u201c<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Duration refers to <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cHow long the decline lasts from the verge of it to the recovery stage.\u201d<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_does_the_recession_affect_an_individual\"><\/span><strong>How does the recession affect an individual?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Losing your employment and finding a replacement is a tougher hit.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Investments in any instruments may reap you nothing but loss.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sales for the business depreciate and may force them into bankruptcy.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tightened regulations from the lenders.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Is_the_recession_at_the_surge\"><\/span><strong>Is the recession at the surge?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The news about the arrival of the recession is hovering around but is it actually coming? For that to be the case, there must be uncertainty in several factors which causes the recession. So far only the yield curve is contributing to that fact and none other.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Business_outputs\"><\/span><strong>Business outputs\u00a0<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The dip comes with incurring losses, but the response of the businesses has been positive.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Spending_trend\"><\/span><strong>Spending trend<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The decline or slowing of consumer spending indicates that the economy is weakening but the spending has been consistently great by the consumers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Employment_drive\"><\/span><strong>Employment drive<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">More the employment opportunities are carried out, the greater is the productivity of the economy, and the moment it lowers, this dip impacts the GDP. Due to increasing demand by the consumer, employment is sustainable so far.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Yield_curve\"><\/span><strong>Yield curve<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/essentials\/bond-market\/what-is-a-yield\/\">yield<\/a> curve of the US treasuries has an impact on the recession. This is observed to be flattening to slightly inverted at the present and can signify the recession to arrive.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It might not be easy to entirely give a final verdict about the arrival of the recession as the sustainable recovery is still seen in the economies and at this moment predicting how long it may stay might be not viable just based on the slight decline in the GDP and yield curve. But it is always possible to take precautionary measures by having an investment strategy at hand to tackle the economic outbreak at any given point in time.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Time_Value_of_the_Money_in_the_Present_and_Future\"><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/essentials\/time-value-of-the-money-in-the-present-future\/?utm_source=blog&amp;utm_medium=blog&amp;utm_Recession\"><strong>Time Value of the Money in the Present and Future\u00a0<\/strong><\/a><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"At_a_glance\"><\/span><strong>At a glance<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Currently, due to crises like pandemic outrage and war, the consequences have slowed down the growth of the economy. And it is termed \u201cStagflation\u201d. This in turn has increased the cost of living in the countries due to rising inflation. For a country to be doing absolutely well, it requires maintaining a GDP of 10% growth year on year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It was only in 1988 and 2006, India saw a GDP above 10% but it is hard for any economy to maintain a GDP consistently to this level, and a dip due to natural or man-made disasters can always plummet the economy and might warn the sign of recession which always is a concern but needs to be tackled through future visions as it is legit to consider the dips are always meant to be temporary, to expect a recovery as an immediate action after every fall.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Investment_Strategies_in_the_Bond_Market\"><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/essentials\/investment-strategies-in-the-bond-market\/?utm_source=blog&amp;utm_medium=blog&amp;utm_Recession\"><strong>Investment Strategies in the Bond Market\u00a0<\/strong><\/a><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An economic growth surge is a usual expectation of the population residing in countries that are their own.\u00a0 When the systems are&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":12039,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[151],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5201","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-matters"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How is it when the world is in Recession? 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