{"id":5410,"date":"2023-01-06T13:15:25","date_gmt":"2023-01-06T13:15:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/?p=5410"},"modified":"2026-04-15T09:03:14","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T09:03:14","slug":"fixed-income-outlook-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/market-view\/fixed-income-outlook-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK &#8211; 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_79_2 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/market-view\/fixed-income-outlook-2023\/#WHAT_HAPPENED_IN_2022\" >WHAT HAPPENED IN 2022?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/market-view\/fixed-income-outlook-2023\/#REPO_RATE_EXPECTATION_FROM_RBI_IN_2023\" >REPO RATE EXPECTATION FROM RBI IN 2023?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/market-view\/fixed-income-outlook-2023\/#FOR_THE_YEAR_2023\" >FOR THE YEAR 2023<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/market-view\/fixed-income-outlook-2023\/#Impact_of_%F0%9F%91%87\" >Impact of \ud83d\udc47<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/market-view\/fixed-income-outlook-2023\/#DEBT_MARKET_OUTLOOK\" >DEBT MARKET OUTLOOK<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"WHAT_HAPPENED_IN_2022\"><\/span><strong>WHAT HAPPENED IN 2022?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The low single digit return for the calendar year 2022 was similar to the previous year, but here is where the similarities end. The brief sharp <strong>increase in global inflation<\/strong> that was anticipated for 2022 actually occurred. This was mostly caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which <strong>disrupted supply chains<\/strong> and caused a rise in oil and other commodity prices that sent inflation rates worldwide above central banks&#8217; target range. Globally, this forced central banks to sharply raise policy rates and tighten financial conditions. Evidence for this can be found in the dramatic change in capital flows, <strong>increase in bond <a href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/essentials\/bond-introduction\/why-do-bond-prices-and-yields-move-in-opposite-directions\/\">yields<\/a><\/strong>, and decline in both global equities and <a href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/investment-options\/list-view\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bond prices<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To combat sticky inflation at home, <strong>the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbi.org.in\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">RBI<\/a> increased the repo rate from 4% to 6.25% in 2022<\/strong>, which reduced liquidity from almost Rs. 8 lakh crores to Rs. 2 lakh crores. This resulted in a bearish flattening of sovereign bond yields.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5438\" src=\"https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/10060159\/Picture5-1-300x200.png\" alt=\"WHAT HAPPENED IN 2022\" width=\"593\" height=\"395\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/10060159\/Picture5-1-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/10060159\/Picture5-1-1024x682.png 1024w, https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/10060159\/Picture5-1-768x511.png 768w, https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/10060159\/Picture5-1-1536x1022.png 1536w, https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/10060159\/Picture5-1-2048x1363.png 2048w, https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/10060159\/Picture5-1-1170x779.png 1170w, https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/10060159\/Picture5-1-1920x1278.png 1920w, https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/10060159\/Picture5-1-585x389.png 585w, https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/10060159\/Picture5-1-263x175.png 263w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 593px) 100vw, 593px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"REPO_RATE_EXPECTATION_FROM_RBI_IN_2023\"><\/span><strong>REPO RATE EXPECTATION FROM RBI IN 2023?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We anticipate <strong>RBI to likely increase the repo rate one more time in 2023<\/strong>, to 6.5% i.e. by 25 bps , if necessary, and then take a significant pause. Despite this, RBI will maintain its hawkish stance. Before lowering, we should maintain elevated sovereign yields for a while. <em>Additionally, we anticipate that the private sector will contribute more in 2023<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"FOR_THE_YEAR_2023\"><\/span><strong>FOR THE YEAR 2023<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The local dynamics in India are a mixed bag of growth, <a href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/essentials\/did-you-know-about-the-hidden-form-of-inflation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">inflation<\/a>, and the external sector; yet, they do not provide any significant obstacles for the upcoming year. Growth would be slow compared to 2022;<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Impact_of_%F0%9F%91%87\"><\/span><strong>Impact of \ud83d\udc47<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5412\" src=\"https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/06120919\/Picture6-300x137.png\" alt=\"Impact for the year 2023\" width=\"627\" height=\"286\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/06120919\/Picture6-300x137.png 300w, https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/06120919\/Picture6-1024x468.png 1024w, https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/06120919\/Picture6-768x351.png 768w, https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/06120919\/Picture6-1536x701.png 1536w, https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/06120919\/Picture6-2048x935.png 2048w, https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/06120919\/Picture6-1170x534.png 1170w, https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/06120919\/Picture6-1920x877.png 1920w, https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/06120919\/Picture6-585x267.png 585w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 627px) 100vw, 627px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Indian inflation is below 6%<\/strong> for the first time since January 2022, while core inflation is still persistent and broadening, which will be a problem for RBI in 2023. Second, India&#8217;s FY23 current account deficit is on pace to equal 3% of GDP. This is worrisome. Increased current account deficits are a sign of an overheated economy and put additional pressure on the rupee to dollar exchange <a href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/bond-news\/what-are-the-interest-rates-offered-by-nbfc-bonds\/\">rate<\/a>. <strong><em>Despite this, tax revenues are increasing and India&#8217;s growth is still strong<\/em><\/strong>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>On the American market, we think that the Federal Reserve will continue to be hawkish and hike interest rates until inflation starts to decline. The U.S. bond yield curve will remain inverted as a result.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It makes sense that the RBI&#8217;s December policy was hawkish. While the overall level of inflation was expected to decline over time. <strong>With core inflation being stuck at 6% or above, the RBI is uneasy<\/strong>. Furthermore, RBI observed that the <a href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/financial-matters\/which-is-the-5th-largest-economy-india\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Indian economy<\/a> is slowing down. Despite this, they continue to be inflation hawks because they are worried about expanding core inflation and how it would affect consumer spending. On the basis of this, we think the RBI will continue to sound hawkish next year until core inflation starts to decline. The sovereign yield curve ought to remain flat as a result.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Don&#8217;t expect India to see a big contraction or <a href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/essentials\/how-is-it-when-the-world-is-in-recession\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">recession<\/a>. 5.25\u20135.75% is the predicted growth for FY 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5413\" src=\"https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/06120948\/Picture7-300x180.png\" alt=\"Recession Probabilities\" width=\"596\" height=\"358\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/06120948\/Picture7-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/06120948\/Picture7-1024x615.png 1024w, https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/06120948\/Picture7-768x461.png 768w, https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/06120948\/Picture7-1536x923.png 1536w, https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/06120948\/Picture7-1170x703.png 1170w, https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/06120948\/Picture7-585x351.png 585w, https:\/\/d2zny4996dl67j.cloudfront.net\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/06120948\/Picture7.png 1653w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 596px) 100vw, 596px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Source- Bloomberg<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"DEBT_MARKET_OUTLOOK\"><\/span><strong>DEBT MARKET OUTLOOK<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the foreseeable future, we anticipate a narrow range of trading in government bond yields. Investors will arrive in the shape of the Union budget for FY 2024, which will serve as a significant <a href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/essentials\/bond-market\/types-of-government-bonds\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">government bond<\/a> market catalyst. The <a href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bond market<\/a> anticipates a minimum 50 basis points reduction in the <strong>fiscal deficit to 5.9% of GDP<\/strong>. The upcoming Union Budget in February 2023 will drive the <a href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/essentials\/impact-of-u-s-inflation-on-the-indian-debt-market\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">debt market<\/a>, as it will also talk about the government&#8217;s borrowing plan. The RBI&#8217;s assessment of the demand-supply dynamic for bonds in FY23 as well as the actions taken by significant central banks would therefore be a key factor in the bond market. As a result of all of these, benchmark <a href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/blog\/sovereign-gold-bond\/sovereign-gold-bond-vs-gold-etf\/\">sovereign<\/a> yields should avoid trading in the higher portion of their trading range.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In recent months, the primary supply of <a href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/investment-options\/list-view\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">corporate bonds<\/a> has dramatically increased creating more opportunities for investors to participate in an <a href=\"https:\/\/goldenpi.com\/bond-ipo-online\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">upcoming bond IPO India<\/a>. Credit spreads should progressively expand if this pattern continues. <em>It is anticipated that the 10-year Indian Government security would trade at 7.38% by the end of this quarter and 7.60% during the following 12 months. The Indian inflation rate is predicted to be 6% by the end of this quarter and to trend around 4.8% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In 2023, flatter yield curves will provide little incentives for investors to add duration to their portfolios. However, given the generous level of returns, <em>we anticipate investors to make more money<\/em>\ud83d\udcb8<em> next year with the possibility of a small price increase.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>WHAT HAPPENED IN 2022? The low single digit return for the calendar year 2022 was similar to the previous year, but here&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":5415,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[150],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5410","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-view"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK - 2023 - GoldenPi | Blogs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore the Fixed Income Outlook for 2023 in India. 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