|
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
|
The Indian bond market’s got a real disturbance going on right now. The RBI has slashed the repo rate by a whopping 100 basis points since February 2025, down to 5.25% [1] and then just stopped. They hit the pause button again at the June 5 MPC meeting. You’d think bond yields would’ve followed suit, right? But that’s not the case. As of late May 2026, India’s 10-year G-Sec yield was back up to around 7%[2], despite the RBI cutting policy rates. It’s this disconnect, repo rates are down, yet government bond yields are up, that we’re going to dig into in this article. It’s worth understanding if you’ve got money in debt mutual funds, fixed deposits, or direct bonds.
Why the RBI Has Paused Rate Cuts
On June 5, 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee did what it’s been doing with certain regularity: absolutely nothing. The repo rate is still 5.25%, and the stance is as neutral as can be.
The whole thing’s rooted in the uncertain big-picture financial environment. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the West Asia conflict is throwing everything off, and that’s why they hit pause. He talks about crude oil prices going through the roof, supply chains getting disrupted, and inflation plus fiscal pressures mounting on countries like India that rely heavily on imports. The MPC’s growth forecast for FY27 is 6.6% [3], down from 6.9%, and inflation’s expected to be 5.1% for the year, which is a big jump from the 4.6% they thought it’d be earlier.
Retail inflation was actually way below target for a while, but then the energy shock from the West Asia conflict came out of nowhere and changed everything. Now the RBI’s stuck in a dilemma: they want to help growth, but they’re also scared of making things worse and ending up with an inflation spike they didn’t see coming.
Start investing with just ₹10K & grow your wealth with fixed return opportunities.
Invest Now
Why Are G-Sec Yields Rising?
When a central bank slashes rates, you’d expect bond yields to fall. Indian G-Secs, thanks to a few opposing forces at play, are behaving differently:
The Fiscal Supply Problem—
The government has a borrowing habit, with borrowing costs expected to linger around 6.8-7% [5] in FY27, and a fiscal deficit that’s supposed to be 4.2% of GDP, though ICRA’s now saying it’ll likely hit 4.7% [6] due to the tensions in West Asia. All this borrowing means a huge number of G-Secs, and when supply outstrips demand, prices take a nosedive, and yields skyrocket.
The US-India Yield Spread Has Compressed
The US 10-year Treasury yield shot up to 4.5% [7] this year, shrinking the gap between Indian and US bond yields to a mere 2.45%, way below what’s historically normal. This triggered a $12.6 billion [8] outflow of foreign debt in Q4 FY26, which in turn pushed Indian bond yields upwards. When this spread narrows, global investors start to think Indian bonds just aren’t worth the currency risk, and that’s when you get FPI outflows, and yields start to climb.
Bank Participation Has Slowed
Indian lenders are facing a deposit shortage, and after the RBI’s FX interventions and liquidity injections dried up rupee funds, they’re becoming less and less interested in buying government bonds. Normally, banks are the biggest buyers of G-Secs, but with them taking a step back, the market needs to offer higher yields to lure in other buyers.
The Rate-Yield Divergence
Here’s a snapshot of the current standings:
| Metric | Level (approx., as of June 2026) | Direction |
| RBI Repo Rate | 5.25% | Paused |
| 10-Year G-Sec Yield | 7% | Rising/Elevated |
| Repo-G-Sec Spread | 175 bps | Wide (as compared to the historical average) |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.5% | Elevated |
| India-US Yield Spread | 2.45% | Compressed |
| Projected FY27 Fiscal Deficit | 4.3-4.7% of GDP | Under pressure |
Sources: Business Standard/ICRA[9]
Recent Bond-Related Post:
- The Global Bond Shockwave: Why Indian Investors Shouldn’t Ignore 20-Year High US Yields
- Indian Companies Raise ₹15,960 Crore Via Bond Issuances as Debt Market Momentum Builds
- AI Conquered the Stock Market: Why the Bond Market Is Next
What This Means for Your Investments
Debt Mutual Funds
The whole rate-yield divergence thing has made things quite tricky. Long-duration debt funds have been performing poorly since the start of 2026 as interest rates have gone through the roof. Here’s what to consider depending on your category:
- Short-duration and money market funds: They’re relatively shielded from yield movements, given their quick maturity periods. And short-duration AAA PSU papers with 1-3 year tenures are currently yielding way above the repo rate. Check out live listings on SEBI-registered bond platforms like GoldenPi for the latest numbers.
- Long-duration and gilt funds: They’re highly sensitive to interest rate changes, which means NAV volatility is a real concern. Jump in only if you’ve got a 5+ year horizon and can stomach some short-term losses.
- Dynamic bond funds: They can adjust their duration based on rate expectations, which makes them way more adaptable in this volatile environment.
Fixed Deposits
FD rates tend to lag behind repo rate movements. Banks aren’t rushing to cut rates, partly because they need to keep depositors from leaving amid a liquidity crunch. But here’s the thing: that actually works in your favor. If you’ve got a 1-3 year horizon, locking in current FD rates makes total sense, especially before any eventual rate transmission kicks in.
Direct Bond Investors
A 10-year government bond with a 7% coupon can actually jump 4-5% in price if yields fall by just 0.5%. And that appreciation flows straight into the NAV of long-duration debt funds. So the current yield levels do create a potential capital gain opportunity, but only if yields actually fall, which could take longer than most investors expect, given the fiscal pressures and the global backdrop.
But here’s one thing to watch out for: India’s pushing hard for inclusion in the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, following the sweeping tax reforms in June 2026. If that happens during the mid-2026 review, it could unlock tens of billions in passive foreign investment.
The Bottom Line
The gap between the repo rate and G-Sec yields is not a market glitch, but rather the market’s way of factoring in some harsh realities that are beyond the RBI’s control, like geopolitical tensions, fiscal slippage, FPI outflows, and pressure from global interest rates. It’s a good reminder for investors that the RBI’s decisions on rates are just one piece of the puzzle when it comes to bond market returns—there’s so much more at play.
If you’re invested in debt funds, maybe it’s time to take a closer look at your duration exposure, just to be on the safe side. And for those in FDs, keep one thing in mind: these rates won’t last forever. As for keeping an eye on G-Sec yields for hints about future rate cuts, remember there’s a lot more to the picture.
RBI Repo Rate Frequently Asked Questions
An RBI repo rate pause essentially means the central bank is keeping its benchmark lending rate steady, currently at 5.25%. For investors, this signals that short-term policy rates have stabilized, but don’t expect bond yields to just freeze in place. They’ll still be influenced by broader macroeconomic stuff like global inflation and geopolitical events, not just the repo rate.
Government Security yields are all about looking ahead and are driven by market forces that the central bank can’t totally control. Even when the RBI is paused, domestic yields can still face upward pressure due to things like:
Global Energy Shocks: Surges in global crude oil prices (frequently testing $90–$110 a barrel) fuel imported inflation fears.
Hawkish Stance: The RBI is revising its consumer inflation forecasts upward, signaling that interest rates will remain “higher for longer.”
Global Yield Spillovers: Rising bond yields in international markets, such as the US 10-Year Treasury, are forcing Indian yields upward to maintain a competitive risk premium.
Here’s the thing: bond prices and yields have an inverse relationship, so when G-Sec yields rise, the market prices of existing bonds fall, which means investors holding long-duration debt funds or gilt funds might see some temporary capital erosion or a drop in their Net Asset Value (NAV). On the other hand, short-term debt funds are way less affected because their underlying securities mature quickly, shielding them from major price volatility.
Ready to Invest?
Visit GoldenPi to explore current bond options. Compare yields, ratings, and tenures in one place and invest online with as little as ₹10,000.
Disclaimer:
Fixed returns do not constitute guaranteed or assured returns. Investments in corporate debt securities and municipal debt securities/securitized debt instruments are subject to credit risks, market risks, and default risks, including delay and/or default in payment. Read all the offer-related documents carefully. This blog/article should not be construed as financial advice or as an offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security or any products/services of/on GoldenPi or any product/services of its third-party client(s). For a detailed calculation of YTM, visit our website. T&C’s Apply.
Citations
- Source 1 – Groww – https://groww.in/blog/rbi-keeps-repo-rate-unchanged-maintains-neutral-stance-amidst-global-uncertainty
- Source 2 – Trading Economics – https://tradingeconomics.com/india/government-bond-yield
- Source 3 – Outlook Business – https://www.outlookbusiness.com/economy-and-policy/rbi-hits-rate-pause-again-what-changes-for-home-loan-fd-and-investments
- Source 4 – Outlook Business – https://www.outlookbusiness.com/economy-and-policy/rbi-hits-rate-pause-again-what-changes-for-home-loan-fd-and-investments
- Source 5 – Canara Bank – https://www.canarabank.bank.in/documents/d/guest/g-sec-yield-behaviour
- Source 6 – Business Standards – https://www.business-standard.com/amp/economy/analysis/india-fiscal-deficit-fy27-may-rise-to-4-7-percent-icra-west-asia-war-oil-prices-126060300100_1.html
- Source 7 – Trading Economics – https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
- Source 8 – AngelOne – https://www.angelone.in/news/market-updates/india-s-households-face-12-6-lakh-crore-equity-loss-in-q4-2026-as-foreign-investors-withdraw-amid-market-fluctuations
- Source 9 – Business Standards – https://www.business-standard.com/amp/economy/analysis/india-fiscal-deficit-fy27-may-rise-to-4-7-percent-icra-west-asia-war-oil-prices-126060300100_1.html
